XRP at Crossroads: Sell Pressure Mounts as Recovery Signals Emerge

Is XRP on the verge of breaking its downward spiral, or will escalating sell-side activity prolong its struggles?

XRP's Market Challenges and On-Chain Indicators

XRP has experienced significant declines in recent months, reflecting broader cryptocurrency market weakness. Data indicates a 11.9% drop in October, followed by a 13.8% decrease in November, with the token down 11.4% so far in December. This trajectory positions XRP to end 2025 in negative territory, snapping a two-year run of annual gains. On-chain metrics highlight intensifying selling pressure. Exchange inflows, particularly to Binance, surged starting December 15, with daily deposits fluctuating between 35 million XRP and a peak of 116 million XRP on December 19. Such rapid increases in inflows are often associated with intentions to liquidate holdings. Analyst Darkfost observed this shift in investor behavior, noting a departure from a holding strategy that dominated since October.

“These inflows are generally interpreted as a potential intent to sell, especially when they increase rapidly.”

This trend aligns with broader patterns of profit-taking from long-term positions and capitulation among recent buyers. For instance, the proportion of XRP supply held in wallets for 2 to 3 years fell sharply from 14.26% on November 26 to 5.66% on December 26. Sustained high inflows could hinder accumulation efforts, potentially extending the correction and driving prices lower.

Binance Inflows and Investor Sentiment

The spike in Binance deposits underscores evolving market dynamics for XRP. Prior to mid-December, inflows remained stable and moderate, but the recent escalation suggests a pivot toward divestment. Key statistics from on-chain data include:

• Daily inflows post-December 15: Ranging from 35 million to 116 million XRP.
• Monthly performance: October (-11.9%), November (-13.8%), December (ongoing -11.4%).
• Long-term holder supply reduction: 14.26% to 5.66% over one month.

Darkfost further elaborated on the implications:

“While a large portion of the market had been following a holding strategy since October, the trend over the past two weeks points to a move toward profit taking for older positions, as well as capitulation and loss selling from more recent entrants.”

These developments could exacerbate downward pressure if inflows persist, limiting XRP’s ability to stabilize. Market watchers note that such behavior often correlates with reduced confidence amid regulatory uncertainties and macroeconomic factors affecting crypto assets.

Technical Patterns and Historical Parallels

Despite bearish on-chain signals, technical analysis offers glimmers of optimism. A potential Adam and Eve bottoming pattern is forming on XRP’s one-hour chart, characterized by a sharp “Adam” low from panic selling followed by a rounded “Eve” low indicating stabilization. A breakout above the pattern’s neckline would signal buyer dominance and a possible trend reversal. Comparisons to XRP’s 2017 performance add to the discussion, with some analysts highlighting structural similarities in price action post-breakout.

“Measured move for XRP says $15+. Prices, after breaking out in 2017 followed through completely on its measured move and prices, with a recently highly similar breakout, looks to be right on track to do the same. This hints at another near 8X in an over 690% increase,” Javon Marks stated.

However, uncertainties remain: Historical patterns do not guarantee repetition, as current market conditions—including varying liquidity and external influences—differ from 2017. A genuine recovery would require inflows to subside and broader market support. As XRP navigates this pivotal moment, the interplay between on-chain selling and technical bullish cues will shape its near-term path. What could this mean for the future of XRP and investor strategies in a volatile crypto landscape?